KENTUCKY (1/27/12) – We’re six weeks away from selection Sunday, and people are wondering whose going to be in the Final Four this year.
 
It’s hard to predict the Final Four in late January, because the brackets aren’t laid out yet and a lot can happen in six weeks.
 
That doesn’t mean we can’t talk about the best four teams in the country. After all, the Final Four is all about the last four teams.
 
I want to see the stats when it comes to picking out a Final Four team. Defense, rebounds, and three point shooting are the things that standout in my eye. The unexpected can happen though. That’s what makes the NCAA tournament so special
 
Butler, Kentucky, Connecticut, and Virginia Commonwealth were the Final Four teams last year.
 
Last year was a great example of why the unexpected can happen. Kentucky and UCONN passed the grade with their team stats. Virginia Commonwealth and Butler failed.
 
Let’s take a look at these teams from statistical viewpoint.
 
Kentucky as a team shot 39% from three-point land in 2011. Oh and they had two guys shooting well over 40% from beyond the arch. Darius Miller and Doron Lamb were those guys and are members of this year team.
 
UK out-rebounded their opponents by four and allowed opponents to only shoot 32% from the field. Statistically they were a great team, but they fell down to a four seed because of their issues on the road. Nevertheless, they got it together in March and made a run.
 
Connecticut, who won the national title, used defense and rebounding to win said title. They held their opponents to 32% shooting and nearly out-rebounded their opponents by five per game.
 
Shooting beyond the arch wasn’t a strong point for the huskies, but who needs it when you play great defense.
 
Virginia Commonwealth just won. They really didn’t dominate in any one statistical category. They got outrebounded by nearly four a game and didn’t play great defense as opponents typically shot better than them. They shot 37% from downtown, which was okay, but won with strategy rather than stats. The Rams won with strategy rather than stats.
 
Butler didn’t shoot the three well nor had great defense. However, the Bulldogs out-rebounded their opponents by three a game. Rebounding is important when it comes to tournament play. If you can do that, you’ve a chance to win.
 
Enough of the past, let’s talk about this year’s potential Final Four.
 
Syracuse is my favorite as of right now. They only have one loss, and that was without Fabrico Melo who is one of their key starters.
 
Why do I like them? They’re one of the best defensive team in the country. Teams are only shooting 38% against them. Defense wins championships.
 
They like to share the ball as they average 16 assist a game. Coach Jim Boeheim can go deep as they have ten guys who record ten minutes per game. That can help you come March.
 
The Orange scoring margin is nearly 18 points per game. That’s pretty impressive to be able to pull away from opponents like that.
 
For the superstitious, Syracuse won the NCAA title when the title game was held in New Orleans in 2003.
 
The question is whether or not they can stay healthy and survive their brutal stretch in February.
 
Kentucky is right behind Syracuse. This team can play defense. Kentucky is the best team when it comes to field goal defense.
 
Opponents are shooting 36% per game. No other team has a better field goal defense than that in the country. That’s largely in part of Anthony Davis’s shot blocking skills.
 
Offensively, they’re great down low with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Davis. Add Terrance Jones on some nights and you’ve three guys who can dominate the post.
 
UK has struggled from beyond the arch this year. They still have Miller and Lamb on the outside. If they start shooting like they did last year, UK can hang up number eight.
 
The issue for Kentucky is depth. Five players record more than 30 minutes a game. Only seven guys record more than ten minutes a game. This could be an issue come tournament time and that’s why Syracuse is number one.
 
Ohio State is right behind Kentucky. This team has the making of a championship team. Offensively and defensively, they’re tough to beat.
 
They’re beating opponents by 23 points per game, which is impressive. The Buckeyes rebounding margin is eight which is better than the three teams I’ve listed here.
 
They also have Jared Sullinger, one of the best players in the country. When you have a leader like that, you can win.
 
The Buckeyes issue is outside shooting. Being the 70th best three point shooting team doesn’t sound terrible, but they don’t have a dependable three-point shooter. Defenses can resort to a zone defense and force them to shoot from outside. If they do, the Buckeyes could go home early.
 
My final team is the North Carolina Tar Heels. This team was originally my national champion, but things have changed after they lost Dexter Strickland for the year.
 
Their season isn’t ruined but they have a huge hole to fill. Strickland was their best defender and defense wins championships. Somebody better fill those holes in a hurry.
 
The thing that I like about the Tar Heels is their speed and their ability to run up and down the floor. They like to score as they are the number one scoring team in the country. They are also unselfish as only other two other teams get more assists a game.
 
Defensively they are holding opponents to shooting 38.4% percent a game. We’ll have to see if they can continue to do that without Strickland. Teams may have an easier time shooting the ball now that UNC has lost Strickland.
 
Their issues are rebounding and three-point shooting. Oh and don’t forget about their 33-point loss at Florida State. Roy Williams knows that he has a lot of work to do before March comes around.
 
What are the chances that all of these teams make the Final Four? It’s highly unlikely. Until we see the tournament field, nobody will know.
 
One thing is for certain, an upset will happen and there will be plenty of memorable moments come March. If these teams play their cards right, they can be the last team standing.
 
Conor Revell
SurfKY Sports
 
You can contact Conor at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it or follow him on twitter at ConorRevell.

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