KENTUCKY (2/7/12) – Indiana was the only team to beat Kentucky this year; Florida is better and scarier than IU.
 
Billy Donovan will try to become the first coach to defeat Calipari at Rupp tonight.
 
Kentucky will have to play great if they want to extend their home winning streak to 49 games. It won’t be easy for the cats.
 
Florida isn’t a cupcake like LSU and South Carolina are. The Gators are a legitimate top ten team. This is the one team that can beat UK at Rupp this year.
 
If UK can get past Florida then they’ve a great shot to go undefeated at Rupp for a third straight year.
 
The Gator won’t be able to beat the Cats in many ways, but there is one way Florida can beat Kentucky. Indiana did it back in December by shooting the three-ball. Florida is a better three-point shooting team than Indiana.
 
Calipari should be worried. Florida is shooting 40% as a team beyond the arch. The Gators have more than one three-point shooter. Florida has six guys who can hit from outside.
 
That’s scary when you think about it. This isn’t IU scary, this is UF scary. It’s going to be a long night for the cats if the Gators are hitting from outside.
 
Erik Murphy and Kenny Boynton are both shooting better than 40% from outside. If you let them get going then UK could be in trouble.
 
Florida has three guys that are shooting 35% or better from three-point territory and a sixth guy shooting 30% from outside.
 
Florida hasn’t faced a defense like UK though. UK defense is the best in the country. Opponents are only shooting 32% from beyond the arch against Kentucky. It’s not going to be easy for Florida to hit from outside.
 
But when UK blew out South Carolina, the Gamecocks shot 45% from outside. If Florida shoots 45% from outside then it will be a nail biter and come down to a final play. Everybody knows what happened against IU.
 
How does UK stop Florida?
 
UK has to play a man to man defense. It’s going to be tough for Florida to drive with Anthony Davis in the middle. They’re going to try to beat Kentucky with the three-ball. It’s their only hope. If Cal tries to play a zone then Florida could hit a bunch of threes in a hurry. It’s too chancy for UK to try a zone tonight.
Florida can’t go down low.
 
The Gators have the post presence to beat Kentucky. Davis will shut down Patric Young down low. He has no chance down low to compete with Davis.
 
They don’t have a good matchup with Terrence Jones either. Kentucky should dominate down low. After all Florida lives and dies off the three-ball.
 
The Gators are okay when it comes to the defensive side. Opponents are shooting 40% from the field and 34% from the three. Kentucky will need to shoot well from outside if they want to blow away Florida.
 
Depth wise, Florida is similar to UK, they go eight deep. It’s not a deep bench. This will favor the wildcats because they’ve more talent than the Gators.
 
If one team gets into foul trouble then it could hurt either team. The refs could play a factor in this game. It’ll be interesting to see what Donovan and Calipari do if the refs are calling a lot of fouls.
 
Ever since the Xavier and Cincinnati fiasco, referee have been calling more fouls in rivalry games. Everybody was upset that the refs called a ton of fouls in the UK and U of L game. A similar thing could happen tonight. It’s just something to watch for.
 
This UK and Florida game will be a fun one to watch. Both teams are athletic and Florida can shoot lights out. Kentucky has the best defense in the country; if they take away the perimeter game then UK will dominate.
 
If you’re a college basketball fan you’ll want to watch this one. There’s a reason why ESPN calls this week rivalry week. This one will be a dandy and there’s a chance that number one will lose.
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Conor Revell
SurfKY Sports

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